_Bangkok Condo Sales Rate Improves to 51.7% as Developers Target Established Demand

Q2 Sales Rate for Newly Launched Condominiums Improves to 51.7%, but Demand Has Yet to Recover; H2 Market Set to Remain Stable as Market Share Shifts

Knight Frank Thailand reported that the launch-period sales rate for newly launched condominiums—calculated from reservations recorded within the quarter of launch—improved to 51.7% in the second quarter of 2026, up from 45.3% in the first quarter. However, the improvement does not yet indicate a strong recovery in purchasing power. Instead, it reflects developers’ efforts to reduce project scale and focus more selectively on locations where demand is clearly established.

During the first half of 2026, 8,501 new condominium units entered the market, of which 3,994 units were reserved within their respective launch quarters, representing a launch-period sales rate of 47.0%. Although this marked an improvement from the period of severe market weakness, it remained below pre-COVID levels, when launch-period sales rates generally exceeded 78%, indicating that the recovery in demand remains fragile.

Improved Sales Rate Reflects Supply Adjustment Rather Than a Full Recovery in Purchasing Power

Changes in launch-period sales rates over recent years demonstrate a clear relationship between the volume of new supply and available purchasing power. From early 2020 to the third quarter of 2021, new supply remained limited at between 2,500 and 7,400 units per quarter, allowing the market to achieve sales rates of approximately 78–100%.

However, after developers accelerated the launch of large-scale projects from the fourth quarter of 2021 onwards, sales rates began to decline. This was particularly evident during 2022 and 2023, when substantial new supply entered the market while purchasing power remained subdued, resulting in quarterly sales rates generally ranging between 24% and 45%.

Throughout 2023, 35,761 new units were launched, but only 10,155 units were reserved during their respective launch quarters, representing a sales rate of 28.4%. The rate subsequently fell to a low of 8.3% in the first quarter of 2024. 

From the second half of 2024 onwards, sales rates began to improve as developers reduced both the number and scale of new project launches. In 2025, 17,409 new units entered the market, of which 8,980 units were reserved during their launch quarters, representing a sales rate of 51.6%.

The figures indicate that the recovery in launch-period sales rates to approximately 50% has partly resulted from developers aligning new supply more closely with the level of demand currently available, rather than from a broad-based recovery in purchasing power.

Ms. Potjaman Vorakitpokathorn, Partner - Head of Project Marketing at Knight Frank Thailand, said: “The launch-period sales rate increased from 45.3% in the first quarter to 51.7% in the second quarter of 2026. However, this improvement should not yet be interpreted as a strong recovery in purchasing power. Instead, it reflects developers’ increasingly disciplined approach to the market, including reducing project scale, selecting locations with clearly established demand, and aligning products and pricing more closely with buyers’ actual purchasing capacity.”

The Overall Market Is Not Expanding, but Market Share Is Shifting

Although overall demand remains constrained, the performance of individual developers is becoming increasingly differentiated. Condominium presales among a sample group of major listed developers increased from THB 14.992 billion in 2021 to THB 31.936 billion in 2022, before reaching a peak of THB 43.586 billion in 2023.

Presales subsequently declined for two consecutive years, falling to THB 40.698 billion in 2024, a decrease of 6.6%, and to THB 37.759 billion in 2025, a further decline of 7.2%.

However, performance varied significantly within the sample group. In 2025, one developer increased its condominium presales by more than 37% from the previous year, while another recorded a decline of nearly 50% and another remained broadly stable. This indicates that the limited demand available in the market is increasingly shifting towards particular developers and projects that are more closely aligned with buyers’ requirements.

In the first quarter of 2026, the sample group recorded combined condominium presales of THB 11.567 billion, equivalent to 27.5% of its combined full-year estimate of THB 42.081 billion. If achieved, the full-year target would represent an 11.4% recovery from 2025 and the first return to growth following two consecutive years of declining presales. However, as the figure represents developers’ combined sales targets, actual quarterly performance will need to be monitored closely.

Financial Readiness Is Increasingly Important in Converting Demand into Sales

At a time when demand remains limited and mortgage approval criteria remain stringent, financial readiness and the ability to manage the entire sales process have become increasingly important. This extends from securing project financing and managing financing costs to setting competitive prices, structuring payment terms and supporting buyers through the mortgage application process.

Developers that can reduce barriers throughout the purchasing journey—from reservation through to ownership transfer—will be better positioned to convert market interest into completed sales and capture a greater share of the remaining demand.

“We expect new supply in the second half of the year to continue to come primarily from major developers, with a focus on segments and locations where demand is clearly established—particularly suburban areas and locations along mass-transit extension lines. Projects are also likely to be positioned at more accessible price points that reflect the continued constraints on purchasing power,” Ms. Potjaman added.

For the second half of 2026, key indicators to monitor will include whether launch-period sales rates can remain consistently above 50%, the extent to which new supply accelerates, and whether the sample group of major developers can achieve its combined condominium presales target of THB 42.081 billion. 

Knight Frank expects Bangkok’s condominium market to remain stable rather than return to broad-based growth during the remainder of the year. Competition is nevertheless expected to intensify as market share shifts between developers, with demand becoming increasingly concentrated in projects offering locations, products, pricing and purchasing conditions that are most closely aligned with buyers’ current constraints.